RADAR-BASED STOCHASTIC PRECIPITATION NOWCASTING USING THE SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (STEPS) (CASE STUDY: PANGKALAN BUN WEATHER RADAR)

Abstract

Nowcasting, or the short-term forecasting of precipitation, is urgently needed to support the mitigation circle in hydrometeorological disasters. Pangkalan Bun weather radar is single-polarization radar with a 200 km maximum range and which runs 10 elevation angles in 10 minutes with a 250 meters spatial resolution. There is no terrain blocking around the covered area. The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is one of many algorithms that is used to generate precipitation nowcasting, and is already in operational use. STEPS has the advantage of producing ensemble nowcasts, by which nowcast uncertainties can be statistically quantified. This research aims to apply STEPS to generate stochastic nowcasting in Pangkalan Bun weather radar and to analyze its advantages and weaknesses. Accuracy is measured by counting the possibility of detection and false alarms under the 5 dBZ threshold and plotting them in a relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The observed frequency and forecast probability is represented by a reliability diagram to evaluate nowcast reliability and sharpness. Qualitative analysis of the results showed that the STEPS ensemble produces smoothed reflectivity fields that cannot capture extreme values in an observed quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), but that the algorithm achieves good accuracy under the threshold used, up to 40 minutes lead time. The ROC shows a curved upper left-hand corner, and the reliability diagram is an almost perfect nowcast diagonal line.