Malaria Morbidity Prediction Scenario In Indonesia
Keywords:
ARIMA, extrapolation trend, malaria, morbidity, predictionAbstract
WHO declared that Indonesia is a country at risk of malaria, because of the high rates of malaria morbidity. Government commitment in eradicating malaria has been realized in Malaria elimination program. The program aims to reduce Malaria case to zero in 2030. Starting from 2011, Indonesia suffered a drop in API’s value from 1.75 to 0.84‰. Despite the numerous drop in Malaria cases, some regions are until now suffering from large major outbreaks especially in the eastern Indonesia. The aim of this paper is to predict the trend of malaria morbidity with the API variable value of each targeted area in Indonesia. The prediction method employed in this research was deterministic method using extrapolation trends and probabilistic method using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) using variation percentage of training and testing data to obtain the best prediction method. Result of this article was API value scenario in Indonesia up to 2030 for every targeted area. Based on the analysis result, the best method to predict the value of API was exponential growth method since it had the smallest MAPE value, which was 38.48 using 80% training data and 20% testing data. Prediction results indicated that the first targeted area had eliminated malaria in 2016, the second targeted area target would eliminated malaria in 2019 and the third targeted area was by 2022. Whereas the fourth targeted area covers Papua, West Papua, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and North Maluku had not eliminated malaria until 2030.
References
Abidin, Z., & Hernawan, D. (2010). Prevalensi Malaria Klinis dan Positif Plasmodium spp. Berdasarkan Mass Blood Survey di Kabupaten Rokan Hilir Provinsi Riau. Jurnal Aspirator Vol.2 No.1 Tahun 2010 : 84-91.
Chin, J. (2006). Manual Pemberantasan Penyakit Menular. Jakarta : CV Infomedia.
Departemen Kesehatan RI. (1999). Epidemiologi Penyakit Malaria. Direktorat Jenderal Pemberantasan Penyakit Menular dan Penyehatan Lingkungan Pemukiman. Jakarta : Departemen Kesehatan RI.
Departemen Kesehatan RI. (2006). Pedoman Surveilans Malaria. Ditjen PP dan PL, Dit. Pengendalian Penyakit Bersumber Binatang. Jakarta : Departemen Kesehatan RI.
DJaja, S., Wiryawan, Y., & Maisya, B. (2009). Tren Penyakit Penyebab Kematian Bayi dan Anak Balita di Indonesia Dalam Periode Tahun 1992-2007. Jurnal Ekologi Kesehatan Vol.8, No.4, Desember 2009 : 1100-1107.
Elyazar, I.R.F., Rachmat, A., Tobing, C., & Rodayah, H., 2007. Assessment of Malaria Management Information System in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam Province 2006. Sub-Direktorat Pengendalian Malaria Direktorat Jendral Pengendalian Penyakit and Penyehatan Lingkungan and US Namru 2, Jakarta, Indonesia, 14 pp.
Elyazar, I.R.F., Hay, S.I., & Baird, J.K. (2011). Malaria Distribution, Prevalence, Drug Resistance and Control in Indonesia. Advances in Parasitology, Volume 74, DOI: 10.1016/ B978-0-12-385897-9.00002-1
Feachem, R.G.A., Phillips, A.A., & Target, G.A., (2009). Shrinking the Malaria Map: A Prospectus on Malaria Elimination. The Global Health Group, Global Health Sciences, University of California, California.
Firdausi, K,, Saudi, Y., & Sutikno, T. (2007). Deteksi API Real-time Dengan Metode Thresholding Rerata RGB. Jurnal Telkomnika, Vol.5, No.2, Agustus 2017 : 127-132.
Friaraiyatini, F., Keman, S., & Yudahstuti, R. (2006). Pengaruh Lingkungan Dan Perilaku Masyarakat Terhadap Kejadian Malaria di Kabupaten Barito Selatan. Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan Vol 2. No. 2.
Gandahusada, S. (1990). Fight Againts Malaria In Indonesia. The National Institute of Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health Republic Indonesia. Hidajah, A.C., Notobroto, H.B., Yudhistira, R., &
Hargono, A. (2006). Dinamika Penularan Malaria di Daerah Perbatasan. Surabaya : Penerbit Universitas Airlangga.
JPNN, (2010). 2030 Target Eliminasi Malaria. Available in https://www.jpnn.com/news/2030-target-eliminasi-malaria/.
Mirontoneg, A.R. (2016). Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Berhubungan Dengan Kejadian Malaria Pada Anak di Wilayah Kerja PKM Tona Kecamatan Tahuna Kabupaten Sangihe. Manado : Penerbit Universitas Sam Ratulangi.
Nofianti, T. (2014). Kejadian Malaria dan Status Gizi Balita di Kabupaten Manokwari Provinsi Papua Barat. Jurnal Gizi Klinik Indonesia Vol 10 No.4 April 2014 : 180-190.
Rachmadhani, D., & Widayani, P. (2014). Pemodelan Prediksi Kerawanan Penyakit Malaria Menggunakan Metode Ordinary Least Square (OL) di Sebagian Kabupaten Kulon Progo. Yogyakarta : Penerbit Universitas Gadja Mada.
Rejeki, D.W.S, Sari, R.A, & Nurhayati, N. (2014). Annual Parasite Incidence Malaria di Kabupaten Banyumas. Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Nasional Vol 9, No 2, November 2014 : 137-143.
Santoso, B. (2010). Prevalensi Malaria Klinis dan Positif Plasmodium spp. Berdasarkan Mass Blood Survey di Kabupaten Maluku Tenggara Barat. Jurnal Aspirator Vol.2 No.1 Tahun 2010 : 04-10.
Setya, F., et al. (1997). Prevalensi Malaria Pada Anak di Beberapa Sekolah Dasar Kecamatan Padang Cermin Lampung. Majalah Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia.
Sopi, I. I.P.B, & Patanduk, Y. (2015). Malaria Pada Anak di Bawah Umur Lima Tahun. Jurnal Vektor Penyakit Loka Litbang P2B2 Waikububak, Nusa Tenggara Timur : 65-71.
Sutarto, C. E. (2017). Faktor Lingkungan, Perilaku dan Penyakit Malaria. Jurnal Agromed Unila Vol.4, No.1, Juni 2017 : 173-184.
Tarmidzi, M., Tjokrosonto, S., & Sudargo, T. (2007). Hubungan Antara Kejadian Malaria Dengan Status Gizi Balita. Jurnal Berita Kedokteran Masyarakat Vol.23 No.1, Maret 2007 : 41-46.
Tazkiah, M., Wahyuni, C.U., & Martini, S. (2013). Determinan Epidemologi Kejadian BBLR Pada Daerah Endemis Malaria di Kabupaten Banjar Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi Vol.1, No.2, September 2013 : 266-276.
Wardah, S., & Iskandar. (2016). Analisis Penjualan Produk Keripik Pisang Kemasan Bungkus (Studi Kasus : Home Industry Arawana Food Tembilahan). Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol.11, No.3, September 2016 : 135-142.
WHO. (1997). Malaria In The South-East Asia Region. New Delhi
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under an Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) license. This license allows others to remix, adapt, and build upon the work, as long as they credit the author and license their new creations under the same terms.
2. Authors may enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g., posting it to an institutional repository or including it in a book), provided there is an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their personal website) prior to and during the submission process, as this can lead to productive exchanges and increase citations of the published work (See The Effect of Open Access ).
