Pendekatan analisis spasial untuk mengkaji kerawanan kriminalitas di Pulau Sumatra tahun 2022

Abstract

Humans have the right to security from all forms of crime. The fulfilment of this right is listed in goal 16 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on peace, justice, and resilient institutions. However, Indonesia still has a lower level of security from crime compared to other countries. One region contributing to the high level of crime vulnerability in Indonesia is Sumatra Island. The high level of crime vulnerability is not only influenced by socio-economic factors but can also be affected by spatial effects. Therefore, this research aims to study the influence of spatial effects on the crime vulnerability level and find the best model and factors that affect the level of crime vulnerability in Sumatra Island in 2022. The data is sourced from E-MP data by Bareskrim Polri and secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. This research applies the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) method and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model with Adaptive Gaussian weights. The results of this study indicate the effect of spatial heterogeneity. This means that different models and significant effects are obtained for 149 districts/cities on Sumatra Island. Three independent variables significantly affect the level of vulnerability: the average years of schooling, population density, and unemployment rate.