Pengaruh Produksi Kelapa Sawit, Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit Dunia, dan Emisi Karbon terhadap Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55981/bilp.2024.3082Keywords:
Export, carbon emissions, price , oil palm, production, 2SLSAbstract
Indonesia is the largest producer and exporter of palm oil in the world. Unfortunately, Indonesian palm oil exports are influenced by various factors, including environmental issues, which ultimately disrupt export benefits. This research aims to analyze the influence of production, world prices, and carbon emissions on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The analytical method used is Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) with simultaneous supply and demand equations for Indonesian palm oil export volumes from 1991-2021. The research results show that the increase in palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia has positively contributed to the increase in world palm oil prices as demand also increases. Furthermore, the increase in world palm oil prices has encouraged Indonesia's exports to world markets. The increase in Indonesian palm oil production has encouraged an increased volume of exports to the world market. However, market appreciation for environmentally friendly palm oil has not contributed positively to the price and increase in palm oil export volume.
Downloads
References
Ali, H., Karimi, S., & Febriamansyah, R. (2019). Analysis of export performance and export competitiveness trade of crude palm oil (CPO) industry in Indonesia with RSPO in India and United States markets. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 497(012043). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/497/1/012043.
Anzani, V., Roessali, W., & Handayani, M. (2023). Analisis faktor–faktor yang mempengaruhi volume ekspor dan daya saing minyak sawit. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis (JEPA), 7(3), 950–962. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2023.007.03.4.
Amalia, R., Dharmawan, A. H., Prasetyo, L. B., & Pacheco, P. (2019). Perubahan tutupan lahan akibat ekspansi perkebunan kelapa sawit: Dampak sosial, skonomi dan ekologi. Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan, 17(1), 130–139. https://doi.org/10.14710/jil.17.1.130-139.
Amandari, L. T., & Dewi, Y. K. (2022). Is the measure to phase out crude palm oil in RED II discriminatory based on the world trade organization law? Yuridika, 37(1), 211-254. https://doi.org/10.20473/ydk.v37i1.34596.
Ardana, I. K., & Kariyana, K. (2016). Pengaruh inovasi teknologi dan penggunaan input terhadap produktivitas kelapa sawit di Provinsi Kalimantan Barat. Jurnal Littri, 22(3), 125–134. https://doi.org/ 10.21082/littri.v22n3.2016.125-134.
Arsyad, M., Amiruddin, A., & Jahroh, S. (2020). Competitiveness of palm oil products in international trade: An analysis between Indonesia and Malaysia. Carakatani, 35(2), 157–167. https://doi.org/10.20961/carakatani.v35i2.41091.
Austin, K. G., Kasibhatla, P. S., Urban, D. L., Stolle, F., & Vincent, J. (2015). Reconciling oil palm expansion and climate change mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia. PLoS ONE, 10(5), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127963.
Budiono, K., & Ellitan, L. (2024). The efficiency and performance of Apple’s supply chain management. ULIL ALBAB: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin, 3(5), 46-66. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379540501_The_Efficiency_and_Performance_of_Apple's_Supply_Chain_Management.
Cimpoies, D., & Golban, A. (2013). The competitiveness of high value added agriculture and major factors of its increasing: The case of the Republic of Moldova. Scientific Papers Series Management Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 13(2), 41-48. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.XIII_2/Art5.pdf.
Dislich, C., Keyel, A. C., Salecker, J., Kisel, Y., Meyer, K. M., Auliya, M., Barnes, A. D., Corre, M. D., Darras, K., Faust, H., Hess, B., Klasen, S., Knohl, A., Kreft, H., Meijide, A., Nurdiansyah, F., Otten, F., Pe, G., Steinebach, S., … Wiegand, K. (2017). A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, using forests as a reference system. Biological Reviews, 49, 1539–1569. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12295.
Gunawan, H., Muhlisin, S., & Ikhtiono, G. (2022). Analisis pengelolaan BUMDes dan dampaknya terhadap kehidupan ekonomi masyarakat dalam perspektif ekonomi syariah: Studi kasus BUMDes Ratu Kemuning Desa Cimanggis Bojonggede Bogor. El Mal, 5(1), 22–37. https://doi.org/1047467/elmal.v5i1.619.
Hubah, S. V. (2023). Eksternalitas penetapan kebijakan pajak karbon di Indonesia. Jurnal Media Riset Ekonomi, 2(3), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.36277/mreko.v2i3.287.
Huda, E. N., & Widodo, A. (2017). Determinan dan stabilitas ekspor crude palm oil Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 20(1), 45–67. https://doi.org/10.24914/jeb.v20i1.518.
International Monetary Fund. (2023). Global Price of Palm Oil. Diunduh tanggal 6 Desember 2023 pada https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPOILUSDM#0.
Ismail, R. (2022). Product diversification: Marketing management strategy for business growth. Jurnal Ekonomi, 11(03), 2162-2167. https://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi/article/view/3995.
Johnson, R. C. (2014). Five facts about value-Added exports and implications for macroeconomics and trade research. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 119-142. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.2.119.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2021). Statistik perkebunan unggulan nasional 2020-2022. Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, Kemeterian Pertanian, Republik Indonesia.
Kinseng, R. A., Nasdian, F. T., Mardiyaningsih, D. I., Dharmawan, A. H., Hospese, O., Pramudya, E. P., Putri, E. I. K., Amaliah, R., Yuliana, B. E., & Rahmadian, F. (2023). Unraveling disputes between Indonesia and the European Union on Indonesian palm oil: From environmental issues to national dignity. Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, 19(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/15487733.2022.2152626.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2012). International economics: theory and policy (9th ed.). Pearson Education.
Kusumawardhana, R., & Chen, J. K. (2024). Price transmission and the effect of Indonesia's export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) prices. The International Journal of Business & Management, 12(2), 119-130.
https://www.internationaljournalcorner.com/index.php/theijbm/article/download/129646/89945/312120.
Mariati, R. (2009). Pengaruh produksi nasional, konsumsi dunia dan harga dunia terhadap ekspor crude palm oil (CPO) di Indonesia. Jurnal EPP, 6(1), 30–35. https://agb.faperta.unmul.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/jurnal-vol-6-no-1-rita-mariati.pdf.
Masganti, Nurhayati, Yusuf, R., & Widyanto, H. (2015). Teknologi ramah lingkungan dalam budidaya kelapa sawit di lahan gambut terdegradasi. Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan, 9(2), 97–106. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/132218-ID-teknologi-ramah-lingkungan-dalam-budiday.pdf.
Meijaard, E., Garcia-Ulloa, J., Sheil, D., Wich, S. A., Carlson, K. M., Juffe-Bignoli, D., & Brooks, T. M. (2018). Oil palm and biodiversity: A situation analysis by the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force. IUCN.
Mubekti. (2013). Estimasi jejak karbon industri minyak kelapa sawit. Jurnal Teknik Lingkungan, 15(1), 35–42. https://www.neliti.com/publications/155330/estimasi-jejak-karbon-industri-minyak-kelapa-sawit.
Mughniyati, N., & Sa’roni, C. (2023). Pengaruh produksi kelapa sawit dan nilai ekspor minyak kelapa sawit terhadap produk domestik regional bruto (PDRB) sektor pertanian Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 6(1), 136–144. https://doi.org/10.20527/jiep.v6i1.8956.
Murphy, D. J., Goggin, K., & Paterson, R. R. M. (2021). Oil palm in the 2020s and beyond: Challenges and solutions. CABI Agriculture and Bioscience, 2(39), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43170-021-00058-3.
Murtilaksono, K., Darmosarkoro, W., & Sutarta, E. S. (2009). Upaya peningkatan produksi kelapa sawit melalui penerapan teknik konservasi tanah dan air. Journal of Tropical Soils, 14(2), 135–142. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.5400/jts.2009.v14i2.135-142.
Ngatikoh, S., & Faqih, A. (2020). Kebijakan ekspor impor: Strategi meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. LABATILA: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Islam, 4(2), 167-190. https://doi.org/10.33507/lab.v4i01.
Nugroho, A. E. (2001). Trade policies and the export performance of Indonesia, 1983-1997. The WINNERS, 2(1), 38-46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v2i1.3805.
Oktariyanti, R. A., & Zahidi, M. S. (2024). Analisis dampak kebijakan EUDR terhadap akses ekspor plywood Indonesia ke Eropa (Studi kasus PT. Kutai Timber Indonesia). Jurnal Hubungan Internasional Peradaban, 3(1), 56-81. https://journal.peradaban.ac.id/index.php/jhip/article/view/1781/1139.
Our World in Data. (2024). CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, Indonesia.Diakses 27 Mei 2024 pada https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country.
PASPI Monitor. (2023). Economic impact of the European Union deforestation-free regulation (EUDR) on the national palm oil industry. Journal Analysis of Palm Oil Strategic Issues, IV(06), 777–782. https://palmoilina.asia/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/4.06.-ECONOMIC-IMPACT-OF-THE-EUDR-ON-THE-NATIONAL-PALM-OIL-INDUSTRY.pdf.
Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (2013). Microeconomics (8th ed.). Pearson Education.
Pradina, Y. B. A., & Adhitya, D. (2023). Effect of international CPO prices, substitution goods prices, and exchange rates on crude palm oil (CPO) export volume in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 21(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v21i1.19447.
Purnomo, S. D., & Istiqomah, I. (2019). Economic growth and poverty: The mediating effect of employment. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 12(1), 238-252. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v12i1.18591.
Putri, I. R. (2017). Kerjasama ekspor crude palm oil (CPO) Indonesia ke negara Vietnam pada tahun 2012-2015. Jurnal Online Mahasiswa FISIP, 4(2), 1–11. https://jom.unri.ac.id/index.php/JOMFSIP/article/view/15554.
Qin, L., Shanks, K., Phillips, G. A., & Bernard, D. (2019). The impact of lengths of time series on the accuracy of the ARIMA forecasting. International Research in Higher Education, 4(3), 58-68. https://doi.org/10.5430/irhe.v4n3p58.
Safitri, I., Hidayat, A., & Bustami, S. Y. (2021). Strategi council of palm oil producing countries dalam melindungi ekspor komoditas kelapa sawit negara anggota dari ancaman kebijakan proteksionis Uni Eropa. IJGD: Indonesian Journal of Global Discourse, 3(2), 64–82. https://doi.org/10.29303/ijgd.v3i2.36.
Sari, D. W., Hidayat, F. N., & Abdul, I. (2021). Efficiency of land use in smallholder palm oil plantations in Indonesia: A stochastic frontier approach. Forest and Society, 5(1), 75-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.24259/fs.v5i1.10912.
Saut, Y., & Gultom, M. (2023). Perdagangan minyak sawit Indonesia ke India: Analisis ecologically unequal exchange. Indonesian Perspective, 8(2), 286–311. https://doi.org/10.14710/ip.v8i2.53035.
Sheil, D., Casson, A., Meijaard, E., Gaskell, M. van N. J., Wertz, J. S.-G. K., & Kanninen, M. (2009). The impacts and opportunities of oil palm in Southeast Asia What do we know and what do we need to know ? CIFOR. https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor/002792.
Siallagan, S., & Ishak, A. (2023). A technological capability assessment of company in the crude palm oil industry in Indonesia. International Journal of Technology, 14(5), 1072–1080. https://doi.org/10.14716/ijtech.v14i5.4036.
Sinaga, Y. D., & Hermawan, A. A. (2023). Increasing the company's profitability and cost efficiency through the implementation of activity-based management, value chain, and PESTEL. Jurnal Studi Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 6(2), 287-309. https://doi.org/10.33795/jraam.v4i2.010.
Soheh, N. S., Supijatno, & Sulistyono, E. (2022). Manajemen pemanenan kelapa sawit (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) di kebun utara Petapahan, Kampar, Riau. Bul. Agrohorti, 10(3), 408–418. https://doi.org/10.29244/agrob.v10i3.46454.
Soltanisehat, L., Alizadeh, R., & Mehregan, N. (2019). Research and development investment and productivity growth in firms with different levels of technology. Iran. Econ. Rev., 23(4), 795-818. https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_72991_77e0a5e496e0ea9f85d6c691e8536c99.pdf.
Suardika, I. K., & Dewi, M. S. (2021). The impact of brand, product quality, and price on sales volume of samana mart stores. International Journal of Social Science and Business, 5(2), 256-261. https://doi.org/10.23887/ijssb.v5i2.34766.
Susanti, E. N., & Ariyanto, A. (2023). Exploring farmers’ decision in utilizing certified palm oil seeds in Riau Province. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 20(2), 188–201. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.20.2.188.
Sutrisno, N. (2019). Finding legitimacy on European Union trade policy to limit the import of palm oil: Will Indonesia survive (again)? Indonesian Journal of International Law, 17(1), 19–42. https://doi.org/10.17304/ijil.vol17.1.777.
Syamsurijal, T., & Firwan, T. (2017). Indonesian crude palm oil export performance during the period (1990Q1-2015Q4). Merit Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Soil Sciences, 5(8), 152-165. http://repo.unand.ac.id/4957/1/Syamsurijal%20and%20Firwan.pdf.
Tangkudung, A. G., & Kaseger, J. Y. (2023). Nickel hilirization as added value in strengthening Indonesia's economy. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 6(2), 1325-1339. https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v6i2.7647.
Ulfah, M., Ismono, R. H., & Murniati, K. (2019). The export performance of Indonesia’s palm oil in international market. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 16(2), 140–150. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.16.2.140.
United Nations. (2022). Trade Data. Diakses 6 Desesmber 2023 pada https://comtradeplus.un.org/TradeFlow.
Wibowo, A. (2019). Konversi hutan menjadi tanaman kelapa sawit pada lahan gambut: Implikasi perubahan iklim dan kebijakan. Jurnal Penelitian Sosial dan Ekonomi Kehutanan, 7(4), 251-260. https://www.neliti.com/publications/28986/konversi-hutan-menjadi-tanaman-kelapa-sawit-pada-lahan-gambut-implikasi-perubaha.
Ximenes, L., Nurmalina, R., & Rifin, A. (2022). Analysis of competition for Indonesian palm oil derivative products in the Italian market. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 19(3), 437-452. http://dx.doi.org/10.17358/jma.19.3.437.
Yanita, M., & Suandi, S. (2023). Determinant export volume of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia and Malaysia in the European Union market. AGRISE: Agricultural Socio-economics Journal, 23(1), 19-24. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2023.023.1.3.
Yahya, V. J., Sabiham, S., Pramudya, B., & Las, I. (2019). Identifikasi faktor–faktor yang mempengaruhi emisi karbon di lahan gambut tropis (Kasus pada perkebunan kelapa sawit di Kabupaten Siak). Biospecies, 12(2), 20–27. https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/biospecies/article/view/5319/9015.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Erwinsyah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan