Dampak Pertumbuhan Industri terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Manufaktur: Analisis Agregat dan Industri
Keywords:
ARDL, neraca perdagangan, j-curve, sektor manufaktur.Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak pertumbuhan industri yang diukur menggunakan Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI) terhadap neraca perdagangan manufaktur Indonesia selama periode tahun 2014–2024 dengan pendekatan agregat dan industri. Model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) digunakan dengan memasukkan Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), dan harga minyak dunia serta dua structural break yaitu pandemi COVID-19 dan kebijakan devisa hasil ekspor sebagai variabel kontrol. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya heterogenitas yang signifikan antarindustri. Pada tingkat agregat, peningkatan IPI cenderung memperburuk neraca perdagangan akibat ketergantungan terhadap input impor, sementara pada industri makanan justru terjadi perbaikan seiring dengan ekspansi industri. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) mendukung perbaikan neraca perdagangan agregat namun berdampak negatif pada sektor makanan, sedangkan Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) hanya memperbaiki neraca perdagangan dalam jangka panjang. Pandemi COVID-19 berasosiasi dengan perbaikan neraca perdagangan yang bersifat sementara akibat terjadinya kontraksi impor.
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